Australia’s avocado industry is set for a strong recovery, with production and exports expected to reach record levels in the coming seasons, according to a new report by Rabobank’s RaboResearch division.
The bank’s Global Avocado Update 2026 estimates that Australian avocado production could rise to 170,000 metric tonnes, supported by increased plantings and yield gains as newer orchards reach maturity. The increase follows a 15 per cent decline in production during the 2024/25 season, attributed to the natural biennial bearing cycle of avocado trees, in which yields tend to fluctuate between higher and lower production years.
According to Michael Harvey, Senior Analyst, RaboResearch, Australia’s avocado sector remains on a broader growth trajectory as the industry matures.
“Australia’s avocado sector has undergone structural expansion in recent years, underpinned by increased plantings as well as yield gains as newer orchards reach maturity,” Harvey said.
The medium-term outlook for the sector remains positive, with both domestic and export demand expected to continue growing. Queensland remains Australia’s largest avocado-producing state, accounting for 50 per cent of national output, followed by Western Australia. Growing conditions at the start of the 2026 season have been favourable in these key production regions.
Australian avocado exports have also continued to increase in recent years. Exports reached a record approximately 18,400 metric tonnes in calendar year 2025, with Asia remaining a key destination. Established markets such as Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia continue to lead demand, while emerging opportunities are developing across other Southeast Asian markets and the Middle East.
Average export prices for Australian avocados ranged between AUD 5.20 and AUD 5.24 per kilogram from 2024 through early 2026. Meanwhile, strong local production is expected to keep domestic retail prices relatively low compared with historical levels.
New Zealand supplied approximately 6,000 metric tonnes of avocados to Australia in 2025 to address a seasonal supply gap. However, imports from New Zealand are declining as increased local production reduces demand for imported fruit.
Globally, the avocado market is also expanding rapidly. Global exports increased from 0.73 million metric tonnes in the 2010/11 season to more than 3.3 million tonnes in 2025/26. Mexico and Peru remain the dominant exporters, while production is also growing in countries including Kenya, Spain, Colombia and South Africa.
Global avocado volumes are expected to increase further in the 2026/27 season. However, the developing El Niño weather pattern is expected to increase regional climate risks and contribute to greater variability in yields and fruit sizes.
“Rather than a broad supply squeeze, El Niño will likely increase variability of yields and fruit sizes across regions, thereby amplifying seasonal imbalances and market volatility,” Harvey said.
